Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 181.259343 213.386284 251.131913 299.171434 359.285369 432.826361 5.308526e+02
2025-11-02 140.401189 178.799916 228.731707 299.839353 400.906450 543.284713 7.664358e+02
2025-11-09 114.129785 153.461371 208.398332 293.348924 426.437195 636.386401 1.014034e+03
2025-11-16 96.530442 135.287484 192.501151 286.967574 447.309336 725.972728 1.293393e+03
2025-11-23 83.587936 121.101185 179.017949 279.990759 463.493569 810.845572 1.603912e+03
2025-11-30 78.836654 118.284986 182.171304 300.354392 532.203552 1016.699017 2.287988e+03
2025-12-07 71.997920 110.971004 176.476268 303.488795 568.656513 1170.865123 2.957828e+03
2025-12-14 66.977295 105.867957 173.569971 310.916184 615.761667 1369.072613 3.916996e+03
2025-12-21 61.664597 99.521408 167.378541 310.410748 645.122588 1536.754208 4.944149e+03
2025-12-28 59.853232 99.063299 171.898086 332.886513 735.749415 1919.750641 7.275672e+03
2026-01-04 57.548177 97.378309 173.738065 349.890069 818.815205 2332.549998 1.046149e+04
2026-01-11 55.109478 95.124195 174.063489 363.472341 897.877425 2787.840974 1.491457e+04
2026-01-18 52.098374 91.582730 171.562585 370.680749 964.649570 3263.830689 2.107549e+04
2026-01-25 48.944985 87.424915 167.207363 372.486487 1016.673903 3731.147681 2.915444e+04
2026-02-01 45.392416 82.091456 159.578315 364.205151 1033.017892 4055.875838 3.751938e+04
2026-02-08 42.231251 77.251215 152.446603 355.901123 1047.001443 4390.495483 4.837208e+04
2026-02-15 39.356777 72.735472 145.502807 346.788167 1055.270627 4710.548090 6.190066e+04
2026-02-22 38.939152 73.364806 150.599497 373.473925 1214.290394 6154.213455 1.199062e+05
2026-03-01 37.226124 71.023172 148.286478 377.593360 1284.333382 7123.136025 1.900003e+05
2026-03-08 35.943555 69.504105 147.795276 387.364938 1385.371325 8525.401807 3.414402e+05
2026-03-15 34.247125 66.904783 144.278296 386.699526 1438.815257 9639.025194 5.617176e+05
2026-03-22 34.038245 67.660141 149.448729 416.365132 1661.469786 13021.846697 1.740754e+06
2026-03-29 33.470619 67.527155 152.279495 438.905043 1865.285575 16973.279735 6.401254e+06